Activating Actavis: Taking the Story Beyond the Temporary Duopoly

Posted by Social Science Research Network

Activating Actavis: Taking the Story Beyond the Temporary Duopoly – Bruce H. Kobayashi (George Mason University – School of Law), Joshua D. Wright (Federal Trade Commission ; George Mason University School of Law), Douglas H. Ginsburg (George Mason University School of Law) and Joanna Tsai (Government of the United States of America – Federal Trade Commission)

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the economics of litigation and settlement of patent disputes arising from Paragraph IV ANDA filings under the Drug Price Competition and Patent Term Restoration Act (“Hatch-Waxman Act”) within the framework set out in FTC v. Actavis. Recent economic analyses of reverse payment settlements are based upon a monopoly-to-duopoly model that assumes a single generic entrant. These analyses have been used to support antitrust rules that would enjoin reverse payments that exceed the cost of litigation. We demonstrate that the simple monopoly-to-duopoly models providing the analytical basis for the litigation cost benchmark for analyzing reverse payment settlements is incomplete. Our key institutional insight is the fact that entry by multiple firms follows the invalidation of a patent. Accounting for this critical institutional detail in a more generalized monopoly-to-duopoly model results in important and different implications for patent settlements, welfare, and application of the rule of reason pursuant to Actavis. The result is a broader settlement range than under the monopoly-to-duopoly model that yields robust incentives for the brand and generic entrant to settle the case. This broad settlement range makes attempts to regulate the size of patent settlements ineffective at achieving consumer welfare increasing settlements, or inducing the invalidation of “bad” patents through higher litigation rates. Incorporating multiple serial entrants also decouples the litigation-adjusted expected value of the patent and the consumer welfare standard, and further weakens the relationship between patent strength and the size of the settlement which has motivated numerous calls to deem presumptively unlawful all payments greater than anticipated litigation costs.